Takero DOI - Abstract of my papers

Abstract

Policies, Business Cycles, and Elections in Japan

Takero Doi
The Journal of Economic Studies (The University of Tokyo) vol.40, pp.29-45, February 1998.

We analyze the relationship between macro-economy and politics in Japan. Although there is much previous research, the empirical results contradict and are not decided. Furthermore, the era of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) single-party-government had ceased in 1993, and Japanese politics in the 1990s differs it in the 1980s. It is significance that we analyze the relationship again using recent data.
The conclusions of our empirical studies are as follows. In previous works, "manipulative hypothesis" contradicts with "opportunistic hypothesis." The former means that the government operates policies toward the timing of the election, then the economic when the election is carried out is prosperity. The latter means that the government chooses the timing of election and carries out the election in good times. We investigate which hypothesis is fit in Japan.
On House of Representatives election, we find that the government manipulates monetary policies before the election in the period before the oil shock, but does not in the period after the oil shock. Moreover, we obtain the empirical results that the government carried out the election in prosperous times rather than operated policies toward the timing of election under LDP single-party-government. So It supports "opportunistic hypothesis."
The timing of House of Councilors election is decided in advance. We find that there were many cases, however, that the election were carried out in recessions. Furthermore, we get the empirical result that the government manipulates monetary policies before House of Councilors election in the period before the oil shock, and manipulates fiscal policies before the election in the period after the oil shock. Therefore, we conclude on House of Councilors election that the government operates policies toward the timing of the election, but the economic when the election is carried out is not prosperity as the policies don't work well.